← Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Fire SlimesTier 1
at Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Slimes | 9.8% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 35.4% | -7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.8% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.9% | +7.0 |
| Water Silvie | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Arisanna | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.7 |
| Water Beast | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |